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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-08-02 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 648 FOPZ15 KNHC 022041 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 1 63(64) 10(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 130W 50 X 11(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 130W 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 54(58) 18(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 17(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 24(69) 1(70) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 23(37) X(37) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 25(75) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 25(47) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-02 22:40:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, NOW WITH 110-MPH WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 2 the center of Hector was located near 14.1, -125.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 9
2018-08-02 22:40:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 422 WTPZ35 KNHC 022040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 ...HECTOR STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, NOW WITH 110-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 125.8W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 125.8 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have risen to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is likely to become a major hurricane tonight or tomorrow, with further intensification possible over the next few days. Hector is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-08-02 22:40:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 423 WTPZ25 KNHC 022040 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 127.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.9N 129.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.8N 134.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.6N 139.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 125.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-08-02 16:27:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 175 WTPZ45 KNHC 021427 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 Well, so much for the shear. Satellite images indicate that Hector is rapidly intensifying and has recently formed a small eye. The initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, based on the TAFB Dvorak estimate. While there still could be some shear over the next day or so, it seems apparent now that the highest shear should stay north of the tropical cyclone, leaving Hector in a pocket of lighter winds. The main inhibiting factor is expected to be more marginal SSTs, with temperatures below 27C in the path of the hurricane. The official forecast assumes the current intensification trend will last for another 12 hours or so, then levels off due to the more marginal waters, similar to the latest SHIPS/LGEM forecasts. It is worth noting that the regional hurricane models show an unrealistic solution of significant weakening in the short term, and have been disregarded. In the longer range, the upper-level environment and water temperatures are more than sufficient to support a major hurricane, and the new forecast reflects these conditions. Hector has turned westward and accelerated, now moving 12 kt. A large subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward over the next several days, keeping the cyclone on this general course into the Central Pacific. The ridge could weaken somewhat by day 5, causing a more west-northwestward motion early next week. Little change was made to the previous official track forecast, although it is a shade faster at the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.2N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.3N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.3N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 14.2N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 13.6N 138.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 13.8N 143.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 14.5N 148.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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