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Tropical Storm Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2018-08-01 16:45:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 309 FOPZ15 KNHC 011445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 1500 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 32(32) 50(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 125W 50 X 5( 5) 33(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 39(78) 1(79) X(79) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 1(42) X(42) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 32(69) 2(71) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) 1(38) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 24(55) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Hector (EP5/EP102018)

2018-08-01 16:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HECTOR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 1 the center of Hector was located near 13.8, -120.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory Number 4

2018-08-01 16:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 959 WTPZ35 KNHC 011445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 ...HECTOR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 120.4W ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 120.4 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. A turn toward the west is forecast tomorrow, with the westward motion likely lasting a few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hector could become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Advisory Number 4

2018-08-01 16:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 960 WTPZ25 KNHC 011445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 1500 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 120.4W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 120.4W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.9W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 124.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.4N 133.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 13.7N 142.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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