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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-01 10:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 120 WTPZ45 KNHC 010832 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Hector is still somewhat disorganized, with a majority of its deep convection displaced to the south and west of its surface center. In fact, a recent AMSU pass around 0515 UTC indicated that the center of Hector was nearly exposed on the northeast side of a small curved band. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have not changed since the last advisory and the ASCAT instruments missed the cyclone once again, so the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt. Easterly shear of around 10 kt, as analyzed in SHIPS diagnostics, appears to be the primary factor preventing Hector from becoming better organized. The latest GFS and ECMWF runs at 00Z suggest that the shear will increase slightly during the next 24-36 hours before decreasing substantially during the second half of the forecast period. Despite the shear, all of the intensity guidance forecasts that Hector will intensify in an otherwise favorable environment, and the intensity guidance is generally higher than it was previously. The dynamical hurricane models, HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC all bring Hector to near major hurricane strength, while SHIPS and LGEM are a little lower. Given that Hector is still fairly disorganized, the intensity forecast for the first 24 hours is somewhat conservative, and favors the statistical-dynamical models. Beyond that time, the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than it was previously, but is still just below the intensity consensus. The estimated initial motion of the tropical storm is 285/13 kt. Little change has been made to the track forecast, which has been adjusted only slightly to the north through most of the forecast period. The track guidance is in very good agreement on the track of Hector, and the main source of uncertainty is the speed at which an extensive mid-level ridge to the north will steer the cyclone westward. Since I see no obvious reason to favor any one of the typically-reliable global models, the NHC forecast is now very close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 13.4N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.9N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 14.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.4N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 14.3N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 14.0N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 14.0N 140.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-01 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 1 the center of Hector was located near 13.4, -119.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory Number 3
2018-08-01 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 866 WTPZ35 KNHC 010832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 ...HECTOR CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 119.4W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 119.4 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Hector is expected become a hurricane later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-08-01 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 865 WTPZ25 KNHC 010832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0900 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.4W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 119.4W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 118.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.9N 121.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.4N 125.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.4N 127.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N 132.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 14.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 119.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-08-01 10:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 867 FOPZ15 KNHC 010832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0900 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X 12(12) 56(68) 8(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 50(69) 2(71) X(71) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 2(37) X(37) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 40(55) 5(60) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 4(29) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30(39) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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