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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 13:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121148 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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atlantic
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 07:52:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 120551 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 550 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains broad and somewhat elongated. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression on Thursday while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. For additional information on this system, please refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located about 1500 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Development of this system is possible early next week while it moves westward well south of the southern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 07:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120545 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms that extend from the southeastern Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although limited development of this system is anticipated today, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph across the Florida Straits and southern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward over the tropical Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 01:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 112332 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Recent visible imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system has a broad closed surface circulation, but the associated showers and thunderstorms are somewhat limited and disorganized. However, any increase in thunderstorm activity will result in the formation of a tropical depression, and this will likely happen tonight or early Thursday while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of Central America over the weekend. Some development is possible thereafter while the system moves westward through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 01:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 112328 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This weak disturbance is accompanied by limited shower activity that has been gradually diminishing today. This system is forecast to move westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds, and tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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