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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 07:02:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110502 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, and extending northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds while the system moves very slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida by late Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity, some slight development of this system is still possible on Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend or early next week when the system is expected to be a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 01:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102331 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. Some additional development is possible while the system moves slowly westward through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 01:13:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102312 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity, some slight development of this system is still possible tonight and Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-10 19:55:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 101755 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, located over the far north Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although some slight development of this system is possible today or Wednesday, by Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Hamrick/Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-10 19:15:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 101715 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This disturbed weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure that has become better defined over the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Hamrick/Blake
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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