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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-12 22:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Isaac was located near 15.4, -56.6 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 21
2018-09-12 22:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 026 WTNT34 KNHC 122050 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018 ...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 56.6W ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Martin and St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 56.6 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts to 4 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Thursday. STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-09-12 22:49:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 499 FONT14 KNHC 122049 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 17(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 2 17(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ANTIGUA 34 2 31(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ANTIGUA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 3 67(70) 5(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GUADELOUPE 50 X 23(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GUADELOUPE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X 8( 8) 48(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) AVES 50 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) AVES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 34 2 49(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) DOMINICA 50 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DOMINICA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 1 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-09-12 22:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 376 WTNT24 KNHC 122049 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * MONTSERRAT * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MARTIN AND ST. MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 56.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 20SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 56.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 55.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.6N 59.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 20SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 10SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.0N 64.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 67.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 56.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-12 20:23:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Sep 12 the center of Isaac was located near 15.1, -55.7 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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