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Tropical Depression Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-11-06 21:31:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 06 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 062031 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 2100 UTC MON NOV 06 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-11-06 21:30:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 06 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 062030 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017 2100 UTC MON NOV 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 50.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 50.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 34.2N 49.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.6N 48.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 41.1N 46.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 48.8N 37.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 56.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Graphics
2017-11-06 15:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2017 14:39:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Nov 2017 15:24:22 GMT
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nineteen
Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-11-06 15:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 061433 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017 The depression has a sheared appearance with the low-level center exposed to the west of the mid-level center and the convective bands. A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that maximum winds are near 30 kt, which is also in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt. The depression has slowed down and turned to the left, with the initial motion estimated to be 015/3 kt. A faster north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days while the system moves in the flow on the west side of a mid-level ridge. Thereafter, an even faster motion toward the northeast is forecast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one to come into agreement with the latest consensus models. Although the environment ahead of the depression is not expected to be particularly conducive for strengthening as a tropical system, baroclinic enhancements and the expected faster forward speed should cause the cyclone to gain some strength during the next couple of days. The global models agree that the cyclone should merge with a cold front by Wednesday evening, causing extratropical transition. The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The guidance has trended a little higher this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast follows that trend and lies near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 29.5N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 30.8N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 33.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 41.4N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 51.0N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 57.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nineteen (AT4/AL192017)
2017-11-06 15:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Nov 6 the center of Nineteen was located near 29.5, -50.4 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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nineteen