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Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-05 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 08:35:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-05 10:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 08:34:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 08:34:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-07-05 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050832 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021 Elsa appears to be holding steady in strength while moving just south of central Cuba. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images show a persistent area of deep convection over the center and some banding features, especially on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass from around 0130Z indicated that Elsa was a compact system with tropical-storm-force winds mostly confined to a region within about 60 n mi east of the center. Peak winds in the pass were around 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and given the small size of the cyclone and somewhat course resolution of the ASCAT data, it seems very reasonable that Elsa has an initial intensity of around 55 kt. This intensity estimate is also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa again shortly, and the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the storm's intensity and wind field. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 12 kt on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic. A gradual turn to the north is expected over the next day or two as Elsa moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should take the core of Elsa across central or western Cuba later this morning, near the Lower Florida Keys tonight or early Tuesday, and then along or very near the west coast of Florida later on Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most of the models show Elsa moving inland over west-central or northern Florida, but given the expected parallel motion to the coast, much of the west coast of the state will likely see impacts from Elsa on Tuesday and into Wednesday. After Elsa clears Florida, it is expected to move faster north-northeastward across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday before moving over the western Atlantic. The new track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus models. Given the overall favorable environmental conditions, Elsa could strengthen a little before it reaches the coast of Cuba later this morning. Some weakening is expected due to the land interaction with Cuba, but most of the model guidance suggests that Elsa could restrengthen slightly before it moves inland over Florida. Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear. However, it should be noted that given the expected track, much of the west coast of Florida will be on the east side of Elsa, which is where the strongest winds, highest surge, and heaviest rains are expected to be. Gradual weakening is forecast while Elsa moves across portions of the southeast U.S., but some restrengthening is possible again when the storm moves over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one while Elsa is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba today. Hurricane conditions are also possible along the south coast this morning. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for much of the west coast of Florida. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-07-05 10:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 050832 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 1(23) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 5(29) X(29) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 1(36) X(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 1(32) X(32) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 2(35) X(35) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 1(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 30(40) 1(41) X(41) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 19(35) 1(36) X(36) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 2 18(20) 8(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 2 46(48) 14(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) KEY WEST FL 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 1 4( 5) 35(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 25(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 36(51) 7(58) X(58) X(58) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 16(54) 1(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 1(23) X(23) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 9(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 10 43(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) HAVANA 50 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HAVANA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CIENFUEGOS 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-05 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 the center of Elsa was located near 21.0, -79.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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