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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 17

2021-07-04 16:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041454 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY EASTWARD TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * JAMAICA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 76.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 76.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 78.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.4N 81.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.7N 82.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 82.8W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 76.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics

2021-07-04 13:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 11:59:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 09:22:41 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-04 13:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ELSA VERY NEAR JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 the center of Elsa was located near 18.3, -76.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 16A

2021-07-04 13:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041158 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA VERY NEAR JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 76.2W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 76.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and continue to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in southern portions of Haiti for a few more hours, and these conditions are expected to spread across Jamaica later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains possible today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

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