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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-07-05 04:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050258 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX. Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-05 04:57:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 02:57:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Jul 2021 03:22:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-05 04:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...LANDFALL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 the center of Elsa was located near 20.6, -79.2 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-07-05 04:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050255 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC MON JUL 05 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND LAS TUNAS AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS, GRANMA, HOLGUIN, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, AND GUANTANAMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS . A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 79.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 79.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-05 01:59:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 the center of Elsa was located near 20.2, -78.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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