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Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-05 00:22:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 22:22:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-04 22:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 20:44:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 20:44:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-07-04 22:43:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042043 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt. Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening. Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow by the land masses surrounding the cyclone. The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the system should accelerate northward to northeastward over the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions. Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday. 3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-07-04 22:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 042043 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) 1(21) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) X(23) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 1 16(17) 28(45) 4(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 1 18(19) 42(61) 6(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) KEY WEST FL 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 21(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 15(48) X(48) X(48) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 23(40) 1(41) X(41) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 24(31) 1(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 1 32(33) 20(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HAVANA 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 14 69(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-04 22:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA ON MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 the center of Elsa was located near 19.8, -77.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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