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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 18
2021-07-04 22:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 042043 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 77.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CABO CRUZ CUBA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Jamaica * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or early Monday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 77.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near or over eastern Cuba this evening, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba through Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands through Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida Monday night and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-07-04 22:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 131 WTNT25 KNHC 042042 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * JAMAICA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 77.9W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 77.9W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-04 19:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 17:39:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Jul 2021 15:22:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-04 19:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA NEAR EASTERN CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 4 the center of Elsa was located near 19.3, -77.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 17A
2021-07-04 19:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041739 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA NEAR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 77.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * Jamaica * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban province of Artemisa * The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef * Florida Bay * The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 77.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of Jamaica for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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