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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-03 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 14:49:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 15:22:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-07-03 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 031446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 6(28) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 4(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 1(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 1(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 1(18) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) X(19) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 3(21) X(21) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 1(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) 1(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 26(45) 2(47) X(47) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 30(47) 3(50) X(50) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 7(40) 1(41) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 15(39) X(39) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 2(37) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 2(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 13(27) X(27) X(27) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X 5( 5) 39(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 5 46(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) KINGSTON 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LES CAYES 50 52 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) LES CAYES 64 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE BEATA 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Elsa Graphics
2021-07-03 14:00:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 12:00:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Jul 2021 09:22:51 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-03 13:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Jul 3 the center of Elsa was located near 16.5, -70.3 with movement WNW at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-07-03 13:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031157 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 ...ELSA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 70.3W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 70.3 West. Elsa is moving very quickly toward the west-northwest near 31 mph (50 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding with mudslides in Cuba. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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