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Hurricane Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-07-02 22:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 022049 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 9(20) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 9(20) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 2(20) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) 2(24) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 12(42) 2(44) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 18(47) 1(48) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34) 4(38) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 5(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 9(36) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 12(32) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 17(29) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CURACAO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) X(20) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 12(42) 1(43) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) 1(24) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 2(41) X(41) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 20(53) 1(54) X(54) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 25(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 17(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LES CAYES 34 X 6( 6) 75(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 31(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 44(44) 30(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 2 86(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CAPE BEATA 50 X 41(41) 7(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) CAPE BEATA 64 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 12(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PONCE PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 10
2021-07-02 22:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022049 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 63.7W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia * Martinique * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 63.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa passes near or over the Greater Antilles. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-07-02 22:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022049 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 63.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 63.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 62.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 71.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.9N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 79.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 63.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Elsa Graphics
2021-07-02 20:00:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Jul 2021 18:00:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Jul 2021 15:47:08 GMT
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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-07-02 19:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021755 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS MORE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 62.5W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. The Meteorological Service of Barbados has changed the Hurricane Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia * Martinique * Dominica * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 62.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands during the next several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa interacts with Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti by late Saturday and are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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