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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-02 07:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Jul 2021 05:39:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Jul 2021 03:22:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-02 04:58:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Jul 2021 02:58:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Jul 2021 02:58:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-07-02 04:57:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020257 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 The convective structure with Elsa tonight appears to be somewhat better organized than earlier, with a bursting type pattern of cold -75 to -80 C cloud top temperatures just to the northeast of the estimated center. However, a SSMIS microwave pass at 2130 UTC revealed that, underneath the cirrus, the deeper convection is still struggling to rotate up-shear as the system moves quickly to the west-northwest. Despite that fact, an ASCAT-A pass clipped the northeastern edge of Elsa and showed several wind retrievals of 44-46 kt. In addition, the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB was T3.0/45 kt. In support of these data, the current estimated intensity was raised to 45 kt for this advisory. Elsa continues to move quickly to the west-northwest at 290/23 kt. A continued rapid motion to the west-northwest is expected for the next 36 hours as the storm remains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north, and the guidance has trended a bit faster once again tonight. Thereafter, Elsa will reach the western extent of this ridge which will be eroded by a strong mid-latitude trough centered off the eastern US. Once again, the guidance spread increases greatly by this time, with the GFS/UKMET on the slow and left side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF and its ensembles on the fast and right side, and the Canadian roughly in the middle. Interestingly, the latest GFS ensembles show some bifurcation within the larger guidance envelope, with the strongest members further south and west. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous track early on but somewhat faster, and in the latter period was nudged just slightly eastward towards the TVCN consensus. However, the track forecast in the latter time period remains low confidence. The intensity forecast with Elsa also continues to be challenging this evening. While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past day. Despite this convective structure, the fast east-southeasterly low-level flow will likely continue to enhance the winds on the north side of the circulation. For this reason, the intensity forecast still shows intensification in the short term to 55 kt. However, additional intensification beyond that will likely require a better vertically aligned vortex. This structure may be difficult to achieve as moderate mid-level shear continues, counter to the motion vector of the storm. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast shows slight weakening given the possibility of land interaction over the Greater Antilles. The latest intensity forecast continues remain on the conservative side relative to the guidance, especially the HWRF/HMON regional hurricane models, and is also low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday, and are also possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 11.8N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-07-02 04:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 020252 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 7(27) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 8(29) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 4(23) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) 1(21) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 12(44) 1(45) X(45) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 45(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 2 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 34 1 47(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) DOMINICA 34 7 34(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MARTINIQUE 34 28 40(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MARTINIQUE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 50 45(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT LUCIA 50 1 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 35 57(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SAINT VINCENT 50 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 97 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BARBADOS 50 29 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BARBADOS 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-02 04:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 1 the center of Elsa was located near 11.8, -55.9 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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