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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-01 22:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Jul 2021 20:52:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Jul 2021 20:52:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-07-01 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012051 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE LE ST. NICHOLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE LE ST. NICHOLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 53.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-07-01 22:47:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 The structure of Elsa has changed little since the last advisory, with the low-level center partly exposed to the northwest of the somewhat-ragged primary convective band. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little during the last 6 h, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The initial motion is now 285/25. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as the ECWMF and the ECMWF ensembles forecast a turn toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a continued west- northwestward to northwestward motion. In addition, the GFS ensemble members are spread from a continued west-northwestward motion toward the Yucatan Peninsula on one side to a northward motion east of the northern Bahamas on the other. The latter part of the new NHC forecast track will still lean more toward the deterministic GFS/UKMET solutions, but the confidence remains low. The new official forecast track again has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The intensity forecast and its high uncertainty are also little changed from the last advisory. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned earlier, the fast forward motion could result in the upper and lower parts of the storm being unable to stay together, and this could limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also has the issues of possible land interaction and disagreements among the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be, although the latest model runs trended toward less favorable conditions north of about 22N. This uncertainty is highlighted by the UKMET forecasting Elsa to weaken to a trough near western Cuba while the GFS forecasts it to be a hurricane in the same area and time. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-07-01 22:46:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 012046 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 4(23) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 18(34) X(34) X(34) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AVES 34 X 8( 8) 23(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) DOMINICA 34 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MARTINIQUE 34 X 39(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 75(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 77(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 3 82(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BARBADOS 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRENADA 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-01 22:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Jul 1 the center of Elsa was located near 11.2, -53.8 with movement WNW at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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