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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-01 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ELSA... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 1 the center of Elsa was located near 9.4, -48.8 with movement W at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2021-07-01 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010853 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 2(34) X(34) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AVES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 36(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 62(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 57(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 X 3( 3) 68(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 3

2021-07-01 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010853 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ELSA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.4N 48.8W ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 48.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-07-01 10:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010853 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 48.8W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 48.8W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.3N 52.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.2N 61.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.9N 66.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 48.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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