je.st
news
Tag: elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-01 16:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 011453 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 Just-received scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds to the northeast of the center, so the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. Some slight revisions were also made to the initial and forecast wind radii. Over all, the organization of the storm has changed little during the past several hours, with the low-level center partly exposed to the north and northwest of the primary convective band. Elsa continues to move a little faster with the initial motion now 280/24. A rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as the ECWMF and ECMWF ensemble mean forecast a turn toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a west-northwestward to northwestward motion. The latter part of the new NHC forecast track will lean more toward the GFS/UKMET solutions at this time, but the large spread in both the deterministic models and the ensembles make this part of the forecast of low confidence. The new official forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned earlier, the fast forward motion could result in some decoupling of the lower and upper parts of the storm, and this could limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also has high uncertainty due to the possibility of land interaction and disagreements among the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday, with outer rain bands impacting Puerto Rico Friday into Saturday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 10.1N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-07-01 16:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 011448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 31(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) DOMINICA 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MARTINIQUE 34 X 16(16) 25(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 34(34) 39(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 33(33) 37(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X 80(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) BARBADOS 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARBADOS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-01 16:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT RACES TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 1 the center of Elsa was located near 10.1, -51.4 with movement W at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 4
2021-07-01 16:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT RACES TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 51.4W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 51.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the west near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By early Sunday Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-07-01 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 51.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] next »