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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-11-03 15:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 031448 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 Eta appears to have peaked in intensity overnight as an eyewall replacement cycle occurred early this morning. Radar data from San Andres revealed concentric eyewalls and the last images received from that radar early this morning suggests that the inner-eye wall had weakened. Around that time, the eye became cloud filled and less distinct in infrared satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that provided a couple of center fixes this morning reported that the minimum pressure has risen about 15 mb since last evening. The plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 127 kt, and a few SFMR winds slightly higher, but those winds were flagged as suspect. A dropwindsonde in the southeastern eyewall measured a surface wind of 138 kt, but the mean-layer average winds from the sonde supports a much lower intensity, and the instantaneous surface wind from that instrument is likely more representative of a wind gust. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore later today, rapid weakening is expected. It is still not certain if the surface circulation will survive its trek over Central America during the next several days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Eta has been meandering just offshore of the coast of Nicaragua this morning, but the longer term motion is 255/4 kt. The hurricane should turn westward very soon with the center crossing the coast today. A ridge to the north of Eta should steer the cyclone on a faster westward to west-northwestward heading over northern Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days. After 72 hours, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta or its remnants to turn northward and then northeastward. Given that the system is expected to remain over land for at least a couple of days, there continues to be significant uncertainty in the long range portion of the track and intensity forecast. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. Tropical-storm- force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 13.6N 83.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.5N 83.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 13.7N 84.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1200Z 14.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z 15.2N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-11-03 15:46:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 031446 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 1(17) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 2 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 32 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BLUEFIELDS 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN ANDRES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-03 15:46:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 10:00 AM EST Tue Nov 3 the center of Eta was located near 13.6, -83.2 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 12
2020-11-03 15:46:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 031446 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 83.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area today. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-11-03 15:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 031445 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUANA DE PERLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUANA DE PERLAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.2W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.2W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.7N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.7N 88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.2N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 83.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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