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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-11-02 21:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 022049 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 82.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 82.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 82.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.2N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 86.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 82.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Eta Graphics

2020-11-02 18:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Nov 2020 17:49:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Nov 2020 15:25:13 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-02 18:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 1:00 PM EST Mon Nov 2 the center of Eta was located near 14.7, -82.0 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 8A

2020-11-02 18:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 021749 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 ...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 82.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast this afternoon and will continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night. Satellite data indicate that Eta continues to rapidly strengthen. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued strengthening is expected until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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