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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-11-02 09:49:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 020849 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 4(18) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 3(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 3 3( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 7(23) 3(26) 3(29) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 8 72(80) 10(90) 2(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 1 50(51) 16(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 18(18) 24(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) BLUEFIELDS 34 2 2( 4) 13(17) 3(20) 3(23) X(23) 1(24) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 5 12(17) 8(25) 2(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) SAN ANDRES 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LIMON 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-02 09:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 AM EST Mon Nov 2 the center of Eta was located near 14.8, -80.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 7
2020-11-02 09:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 020849 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 ...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 80.9W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-11-02 09:48:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 020848 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 80.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 80.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.6N 82.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.2N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.8N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 80.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-02 06:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 1:00 AM EST Mon Nov 2 the center of Eta was located near 14.9, -80.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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