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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-02 15:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 021456 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight- level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt. The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass through the center. With the continued improvement in organization since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4 hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little slower than before. A mid-level ridge building over the south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn westward, moving farther inland over Central America. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite high. Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat from Eta. Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore, and preparations should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area. 2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.8N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-11-02 15:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 021455 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 1(22) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 1(20) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 11(22) 8(30) 1(31) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 50 41(91) 4(95) 2(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 5 54(59) 12(71) 4(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 3 33(36) 13(49) 4(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) BLUEFIELDS 34 1 4( 5) 11(16) 4(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) BLUEFIELDS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 3 8(11) 9(20) 3(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) SAN ANDRES 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LIMON 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-02 15:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 10:00 AM EST Mon Nov 2 the center of Eta was located near 14.8, -81.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 8
2020-11-02 15:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 021455 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 81.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 81.5 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and will continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night. Reconnaissance aircraft and satellite data indicate that Eta is rapidly strengthening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid strengthening is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta is expected to become a major hurricane very soon. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-02 15:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 021455 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.5W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.5W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 81.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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