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Hurricane Eta Graphics
2020-11-02 21:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Nov 2020 20:53:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Nov 2020 21:25:19 GMT
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-02 21:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 022052 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 Eta is an extremely impressive hurricane in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very small eye that is located within a symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. Although objective Dvorak estimates are lower due to the technique's difficulty in analyzing the correct scene type because of the pinhole eye, data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB analysts reached 6.0 on the Dvorak scale at 18Z, which equates to a wind speed of 115 kt. A recent UW/CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate also supports category 4 intensity. As mentioned in previous advisories over the past 24 hours, the environment ahead of Eta is forecast to remain quite favorable with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions should allow for additional strengthening, however a difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could begin at any time which could cause Eta's intensity to begin to level off. Since there are no signs of an eyewall replacement yet, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening for another 6 to 12 hours, and it is again at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The hurricane has turned west-southwestward with an initial motion estimate of 255/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from this morning. A mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the hurricane making landfall tonight or early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta is forecast to turn westward, and then west-northwestward while it moves over Central America through midweek. Eta's surface circulation may not survive its trek over the mountainous terrain of Central America, but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by later this week and into the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's remnants. Therefore, the NHC track forecast continues to show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the period, however the long range portion of the forecast remains quite uncertain. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.5N 82.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 14.7N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-11-02 21:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 022050 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC MON NOV 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 12(14) 2(16) 2(18) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUANAJA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 10(19) 1(20) 1(21) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 97 2(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 62 21(83) 3(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 35 29(64) 4(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) BLUEFIELDS 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) SAN ANDRES 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LIMON 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-02 21:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 PM EST Mon Nov 2 the center of Eta was located near 14.5, -82.3 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 9
2020-11-02 21:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 022050 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 ...ETA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 82.3W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Eta is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A slower westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central portions of Honduras on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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