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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2020-11-01 09:48:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 010848 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 10(18) 8(26) 6(32) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 23(50) 7(57) 3(60) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 4(24) X(24) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 3(20) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 12(29) 5(34) 1(35) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LIMON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) KINGSTON 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-01 09:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 4:00 AM EST Sun Nov 1 the center of Eta was located near 15.2, -75.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 3

2020-11-01 09:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010847 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 75.7W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these countries later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 75.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue today and tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by Monday night. RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Eta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts of 15 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Hispaniola. Across northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua, rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with local maximum amounts of 30 inches are expected. This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-11-01 09:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO PUERTO CABEZAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 75.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 75.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 77.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.3N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.1N 81.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.7N 82.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 83.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 75.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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