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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-11-01 21:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 012052 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 5(19) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 6(20) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUANAJA 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 9(25) 5(30) 3(33) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 29(30) 44(74) 9(83) 5(88) X(88) 1(89) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 3( 3) 36(39) 13(52) 4(56) 1(57) X(57) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) BLUEFIELDS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 12(20) 8(28) 1(29) 1(30) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN ANDRES 34 3 9(12) 13(25) 6(31) 4(35) 1(36) X(36) SAN ANDRES 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LIMON 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) X(10) 1(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-11-01 21:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 012052 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.7N 82.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.7N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 78.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-01 18:59:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 17:59:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 15:25:15 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-01 18:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ETA... ...SLOW-MOVING ETA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 1:00 PM EST Sun Nov 1 the center of Eta was located near 14.9, -78.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-11-01 18:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011758 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ETA... ...SLOW-MOVING ETA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 78.1W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 78.1 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by late Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday evening: Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm). This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Reinhart/Berg
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