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Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-08-28 04:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280237 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 140.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 140.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 139.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.4N 142.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 143.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.2N 145.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 19.5N 153.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 19.0N 158.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 140.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP5...WMO HEADER WTPA25 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Graphics
2016-08-27 22:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 20:34:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 20:32:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-27 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 GOES-West visible imagery shows that the center of Madeline is located on the northeastern edge of a ragged area of central convection, with a large convective band wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity estimate is 50 kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak classifications. The SHIPS model output shows the vertical shear decreasing below 10 kt by tonight, while Madeline is moving over SSTs above 27C. This environment should allow for some additional strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs and into a drier environment, with mid-level relative humidity values falling below 50 percent. This should result in gradual weakening, followed by steadier weakening later in the period as the vertical wind shear increases above 20 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short range given the observed strengthening, and is similar afterward. This forecast is close to or a bit below the latest IVCN consensus. The initial motion estimate is 305/09. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Madeline should continue moving generally northwestward for the next 48 hours under the influence of mid-level ridge centered well to its northeast. Later in the period, a strengthening mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Island will become the dominant steering mechanism and result in a westward or slightly south of due westward track. Through 72 hours the new NHC forecast is largely and update of the previous near one and close to the TVCN consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the global models have shown run-to-run inconsistency about the details of Madeline's track near the Hawaiian Islands. The latest runs of the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF have shifted south, with a track south of the Big Island, while much of the rest of the guidance is farther north. The NHC track has been shifted southward a little at days 4 and 5, but lies a little north of the multi-model consensus and well north of the southerly set of models. Given the lack of consistency in the track guidance, the confidence in the track foreast late in the period is lower than usual and it is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important to remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145 and 170 miles, respectively. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 15.7N 139.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 16.4N 140.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 17.3N 141.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.3N 143.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.3N 144.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 20.4N 148.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 20.5N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 20.0N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm MADELINE (EP4/EP142016)
2016-08-27 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MADELINE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 27 the center of MADELINE was located near 15.7, -139.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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madeline
Tropical Storm MADELINE Public Advisory Number 5
2016-08-27 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 272032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 ...MADELINE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 139.3W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 139.3 West. Madeline is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Madeline will move into the central North Pacific basin tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Madeline is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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