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Tropical Storm MADELINE Graphics
2016-08-27 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 08:57:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 09:07:48 GMT
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madeline
Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-08-27 11:03:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270903 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 Madeline is gradually becoming better organized this morning, with increasing convective banding noted near the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and this intensity is supported by various objective estimates from CIMSS and CIRA. The initial motion is now 300/9. For the next few days, Madeline should move generally northwestward as it is steered by a segment of the subtropical ridge. After 72 hours, a turn toward the west is likely as Madeline encounters the westward-building subtropical ridge that is steering Hurricane Lester. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the north since the previous advisory, and near the end of the forecast period there is a fair amount of spread regarding whether Madeline will move near the Hawaiian Islands or north of them. The new forecast track is shifted northward, but it lies to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models. Madeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a light-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should allow for steady intensification, and the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in showing Madeline becoming a hurricane in 36 hours or so. After 72 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass along the forecast track should result in a slow weakening. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast, but it lies a little below the intensity consensus. It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast period. It is important to remind users that the average 5-day track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about 170 miles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.5N 138.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.1N 139.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 15.8N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 16.7N 141.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 17.8N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 20.5N 150.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 20.5N 155.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm MADELINE (EP4/EP142016)
2016-08-27 10:56:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MADELINE STRENGTHENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 27 the center of MADELINE was located near 14.5, -138.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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madeline
Tropical Storm MADELINE Public Advisory Number 3
2016-08-27 10:56:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270856 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 ...MADELINE STRENGTHENING AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 138.4W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 138.4 West. Madeline is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast, and Madeline could become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-08-27 10:56:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270856 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 55 26(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 140W 50 5 25(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 140W 64 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 46(65) 3(68) X(68) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) X(31) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 35(45) 6(51) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 9(44) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN