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Tropical Storm MADELINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-08-27 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 272032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 11 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 140W 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 145W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 46(61) 19(80) 1(81) X(81) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 20(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 24(51) 2(53) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 31(45) 3(48) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 10(31) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-08-27 22:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 272032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 2100 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 139.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 139.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 139.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.4N 140.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.3N 141.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.3N 143.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.3N 144.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.4N 148.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 20.5N 152.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 20.0N 157.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 139.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-27 16:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271437 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 A GPM overpass from 1146 UTC indicated that the low-level center of Madeline was located northeast of previous estimates, near the northeastern edge of the convection. This is consistent with the moderate northeasterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS model output based on the GFS and ECMWF fields. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and this value is also close to the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis. Given the relocation of the center, the best estimate of the initial motion is an uncertain 310/08. Madeline is expected to continue moving generally northwestward for the next 72 hours around the southwesterly periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near 125W. After that time, a ridge centered north of the Hawaiian Islands becomes the dominant steering mechanism, and should impart a westward motion through the remainder of the forecast period. While the overall track forecast philosophy has not changed, the more northerly initial position has resulted in a northward shift of the guidance envelope and the NHC forecast by 30 to 50 n mi through the forecast period. The new NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the latest multi-model consensus. The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over Madeline during the next 12 hours or so, which should allow for some intensification through 72 hours while the cyclone is moving over SSTs above 27C. The NHC forecast continues to show Madeline reaching hurricane intensity in about 36 hours. At days 4 and 5, the SSTs along the track drop below 27C and the westerly shear increases, which should result in some weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one after 48 hours due to the more northerly track and is near or a little above the latest intensity consensus. It is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important to remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145 and 170 miles, respectively. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.2N 138.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.9N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 16.7N 140.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 17.7N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 18.8N 143.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 20.5N 147.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 21.0N 151.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 21.0N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Graphics
2016-08-27 16:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 14:35:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 14:35:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm MADELINE (EP4/EP142016)
2016-08-27 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MADELINE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 27 the center of MADELINE was located near 15.2, -138.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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madeline