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Tropical Storm MADELINE Graphics
2016-08-28 05:17:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 02:40:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Aug 2016 03:07:49 GMT
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madeline
Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-28 04:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280239 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 The cloud pattern has changed little in organization during the past several hours and convection is not as deep as earlier today. However, the pattern still consists of a cyclonically curved convective band around the center. Dvorak estimates continue to support an initial intensity of 50 kt. The cyclone is expected to be moving within an environment of light shear for the next 2 to 3 days and over warm waters. This should encourage some intensification. After that time however, the shear is expected to increase to above 20 kt, and the environment will be less humid, resulting in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is very similar to its predecessor, and is very close to the intensity consensus IVCN. Satellite fixes indicate that Madeline is moving toward the west- northwest or 285 degrees at 7 kt. The cyclone is located on the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and is approaching a large mid-latitude trough to its northwest. This pattern should steer Madeline on a more west-northwest course during the next day or two. The trough is forecast to lift out quickly and be replaced by a strong ridge in about 3 days. This pattern should force Madeline to turn toward the west or even south of due west by the end of the forecast period. Track guidance has been very consistent with this solution, and the NHC forecast is in a narrow gap between the previous NHC prediction and the multi-model consensus. Given the small southward shift of the consensus at day 5, the NHC forecast position was adjusted southward accordingly. The confidence in the track foreast late in the period is lower than usual and it is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important to remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145 and 170 miles, respectively. Given that Madeline has moved into the Central Pacific basin, future information on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 15.7N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 17.4N 142.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 18.4N 143.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 19.2N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 19.5N 153.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 19.0N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm MADELINE (EP4/EP142016)
2016-08-28 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MADELINE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 27 the center of MADELINE was located near 15.7, -140.1 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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madeline
Tropical Storm MADELINE Public Advisory Number 6
2016-08-28 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016 ...MADELINE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 140.1W ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 140.1 West. Madeline is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn to the northwest should begin on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Madeline is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP5, WMO header WTPA35 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-08-28 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 0300 UTC SUN AUG 28 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 6 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 38(68) 7(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 13(59) 1(60) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 22(52) 2(54) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 3(23) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 5(34) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA