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Tropical Storm MADELINE Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-08-27 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270855 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 0900 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 138.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 138.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 138.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.1N 139.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.8N 140.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.7N 141.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N 143.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 20.5N 150.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 20.5N 155.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 138.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Graphics
2016-08-27 04:51:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 02:50:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Aug 2016 02:50:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-08-27 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270249 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 0300 UTC SAT AUG 27 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MADELINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 6 56(62) 8(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) 15N 140W 50 X 18(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 140W 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) 1(20) 1(21) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 9(52) X(52) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 10(47) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 15(42) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm MADELINE (EP4/EP142016)
2016-08-27 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MADELINE FORMS WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 26 the center of MADELINE was located near 13.9, -137.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm MADELINE Public Advisory Number 2
2016-08-27 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270249 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MADELINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 ...MADELINE FORMS WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 137.4W ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Madeline was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 137.4 West. Madeline is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Madeline could become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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