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Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

2020-10-19 22:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EPSILON REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 19 the center of Epsilon was located near 25.5, -55.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 3

2020-10-19 22:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192047 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 ...EPSILON REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 55.5W ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 55.5 West. Epsilon is nearly stationary. A slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a northwestward or west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed through midweek. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km), primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-10-19 22:46:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192046 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 55.5W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 60SE 0SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 60SE 30SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 55.5W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.9N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 90SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 56.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...270NE 100SE 40SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.1N 57.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.8N 59.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.8N 60.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.1N 61.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 32.8N 62.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 35.5N 62.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN

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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-10-19 16:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191456 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020 Although the center of the system has become exposed over the past few hours, it is very well defined. In addition, the convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation has continued to improve. Based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5 from TAFB, the system is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. ASCAT-A has missed the circulation, but ASCAT-B caught the far eastern edge of the wind field and indicates winds of 30-35 kt in that area. The tropical storm is located within an environment of moderate southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and over warm waters. These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day or so. By 48 hours, decreasing vertical wind shear could allow for more significant intensification, and there is increasing spread in the intensity guidance by that time. The statistical guidance is at the upper-end of the envelope while the regional hurricane models are lower. The NHC forecast is a bit on the conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent advisories. Epsilon is meandering over the central Atlantic as it is located within an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek, and this ridge should slide eastward later in the week. These changes in the synoptic pattern should cause Epsilon to begin moving west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed by midweek. The models are again in fairly good agreement and the NHC track is near the center of the guidance envelope. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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