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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-21 07:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 05:46:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 03:25:10 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-21 07:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Epsilon was located near 28.8, -57.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-10-21 07:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210545 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 57.6W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 57.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward motion later today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-21 04:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 02:42:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 03:25:10 GMT
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-21 04:36:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 849 WTNT42 KNHC 210236 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast becoming increasingly symmetric. Also the eye, which was intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better defined. Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. This is the tenth hurricane of the season. Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading. The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and northwest. In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center coming closest to the island in around 48 hours. In 3 to 4 days, the hurricane should turn northward and move through a break in the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus. Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate vertical shear during the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very low which should limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be extratropical by that time. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.5N 56.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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