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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-21 10:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 935 WTNT42 KNHC 210852 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin at the time. Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon's intensity is therefore set at 75 kt. By definition, Epsilon has rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt during the past 24 hours. As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge which has built to the north of the hurricane. This ridge is expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night. Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and HWRF models are showing some deviation to the east and west, respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda. However, given that that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model consensus aids. Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much intensification can occur. During the first few days, the NHC intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models. This forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows little change in strength for the next 3 days. Some gradual weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island as a hurricane. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 28.9N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-21 10:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED... ...BUT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE SOON... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Epsilon was located near 28.9, -58.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 9
2020-10-21 10:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 641 WTNT32 KNHC 210852 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...EPSILON HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED... ...BUT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 58.3W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 58.3 West. Epsilon is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, followed by little change in strength into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles (705 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-10-21 10:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 637 FONT12 KNHC 210852 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) 9(31) 7(38) 2(40) X(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-21 10:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 356 WTNT22 KNHC 210851 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...310NE 100SE 70SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 140SE 90SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 110SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 58.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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