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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2020-10-21 04:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 210236 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BERMUDA 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 9(23) 13(36) 3(39) 1(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

2020-10-21 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EPSILON STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 20 the center of Epsilon was located near 28.5, -56.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 8

2020-10-21 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 565 WTNT32 KNHC 210235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 56.8W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 56.8 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward motion on Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-10-21 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 564 WTNT22 KNHC 210235 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 56.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......300NE 90SE 50SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..800NE 360SE 520SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 56.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 56.3W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 100SE 60SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 120SE 80SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...230NE 130SE 90SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 56.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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