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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-20 16:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201451 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 55.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......260NE 60SE 50SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 120SE 270SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 55.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.4N 56.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 90SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.2N 58.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 100SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.9N 59.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 70SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 130SE 80SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.4N 60.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 32.4N 61.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 39.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 55.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-20 10:52:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:52:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:52:56 GMT
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epsilon
Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-10-20 10:48:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 200848 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 22(46) 3(49) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 2(18) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-20 10:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 20 the center of Epsilon was located near 25.6, -54.7 with movement ENE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 5
2020-10-20 10:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200847 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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