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Hurricane John Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-09-23 19:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231756 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 98.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092024)
2024-09-23 19:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 17.9, -81.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1A
2024-09-23 19:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 81.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics