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Hurricane John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-09-23 19:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231757 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P MALDONADO 34 16 45(61) 10(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) P MALDONADO 50 1 12(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P MALDONADO 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P ANGEL 34 2 25(27) 33(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
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Hurricane John Public Advisory Number 5
2024-09-23 19:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231756 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Special Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 98.4 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico tonight, and move inland on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area early Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-09-23 19:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231756 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 98.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics