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Hurricane John Public Advisory Number 5
2024-09-23 19:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231756 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Special Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 98.4 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico tonight, and move inland on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area early Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092024)
2024-09-23 19:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 17.9, -81.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1A
2024-09-23 19:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 81.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics