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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-09-23 19:58:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231758 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to rapidly intensify and the latest images suggest an eye may be forming on visible and infrared imagery. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65 to 85 kt. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast shows John strengthening to a major hurricane prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. It is possible that the hurricane could strengthen more than forecast. Only a minor tweak was made to the previous NHC track forecast to show landfall occurring a bit sooner. Residents of Mexico in the hurricane warning area should rush preparations to completion this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected within portions of the warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1800Z 15.1N 98.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-23 19:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 231757 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane John, located just south of southern Mexico. East-Central Portion of the East Pacific: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through the middle of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-09-23 19:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231757 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P MALDONADO 34 16 45(61) 10(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) P MALDONADO 50 1 12(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P MALDONADO 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P ANGEL 34 2 25(27) 33(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics