je.st
news
Hurricane John Graphics
2024-09-23 20:05:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 18:05:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 18:05:05 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-09-23 19:58:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231758 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to rapidly intensify and the latest images suggest an eye may be forming on visible and infrared imagery. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65 to 85 kt. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast shows John strengthening to a major hurricane prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. It is possible that the hurricane could strengthen more than forecast. Only a minor tweak was made to the previous NHC track forecast to show landfall occurring a bit sooner. Residents of Mexico in the hurricane warning area should rush preparations to completion this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected within portions of the warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1800Z 15.1N 98.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-23 19:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 231757 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane John, located just south of southern Mexico. East-Central Portion of the East Pacific: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through the middle of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics