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Tropical Storm IGNACIO Forecast Discussion Number 5

2015-08-26 04:42:56| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-08-25 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 252045 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today, Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection near and to the south of the center. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt and this is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Erika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle of the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone has been ingesting some dry mid-level air. As in the previous forecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future intensity of this tropical cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates increasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and the GFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during the forecast period. The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening, however, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance. The official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from the previous one and is close to the model consensus. A center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continues to be near 280/17. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Erika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, there is significant spread in the models, with those models that depict a weaker system being farther south and west and those having a stronger cyclone farther to the north and east. The official track forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one and is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus. Some of the tropical storm watches for the islands of the northeastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on the next advisory package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm IGNACIO Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-08-25 22:43:23| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression TWELVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-08-25 16:48:20| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-08-25 16:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251447 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015 The cloud pattern of the system has deteriorated this morning, and deep convection is rather limited at this time. Microwave and high-resolution visible imagery indicates that the center is to the north of the main area of deep convection, and the current intensity is maintained at 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Erika later today and should provide a good estimate of the strength of the system. The dynamical guidance indicates that the future environment of the tropical cyclone will be characterized by marginal humidity and around 15 to 20 kt of vertical shear. This should allow for only slow strengthening at best. The official forecast is similar to the HWRF guidance during the first half of the forecast period, and close to the model consensus near the end of the period. Given the current state of the system and the possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual confidence in the NHC intensity forecast. The initial motion is just north of west or 280/17 kt. The track forecast reasoning is similar to that from the previous advisory package. Over the next couple of days, Erika should be steered west-northwestward on the southern side of a subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, the track models diverge with the HWRF and U.K. Met. office models taking the system more to the north and east of the consensus and the ECMWF and GFS farther west. The official forecast leans toward the latter guidance and is left of the multi-model consensus. Given the significant spread in the guidance in 3 to 5 days, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.6N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.4N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 24.5N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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