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Tropical Storm GUILLERMO Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-07-30 10:40:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300839 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 GOES satellite imagery show that the cloud pattern has become better organized with numerous cyclonically curved convective bands around the center of circulation. The upper-level outflow has improved during the past several hours. Dvorak T-numbers are now 3.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Thus, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Guillermo with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Guillermo is the seventh tropical storm of the 2015 eastern north Pacific hurricane season. The environment of low shear and warm SSTs is quite favorable for strengthening, and Guillermo will likely become a hurricane in about 36 hours. The probability of rapid intensification included in the SHIPS guidance is 32 percent. After 72 hours, both cooler ocean and increasing shear will likely induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast follows very closely the intensity consensus. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west- northwest or 285 degrees at 13 kt. Guillermo is well embedded within the deep easterly flow south of a moderate subtropical ridge. There is high confidence that this pattern should keep the cyclone on this general track for the next 2 to 3 days, given that the guidance is tightly clustered during that period. After that time, Guillermo will reach the western edge of the ridge and will turn more to the northwest toward a mid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is basically on top of the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 8.5N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 8.9N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 10.1N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 11.2N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 12.2N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 14.5N 141.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 16.3N 144.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 11

2015-07-30 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300836 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 The depression is devoid of deep convection, and is basically a tight swirl of low clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on decreasing Dvorak numbers from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is heading toward a hostile environment, and the official forecast calls for dissipation in about 36 hours, but this could occur later today. The shallow depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt. The depression is expected to continue on this general track steered by the low-level trade winds until dissipation. The depression or its remnants are forecast to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 16.5N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 16.3N 140.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 16.0N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2015-07-30 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 Satellite imagery and reports from NOAA buoy 51307 indicate that the large low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California has a closed circulation and sufficient convection to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Nine-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which could be conservative given the current convective organization. The initial motion is 280/13. For the next three days or so, a strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope during this period. From 72-120 hours, the dynamical models suggest a mid- to upper-level trough should weaken the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The guidance becomes somewhat divergent during this time, with the GFS and ECMWF models showing a more northward motion, while the Canadian, UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models show a continued west-northwestward motion. The track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions in calling for a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed. The depression is over warm sea surface temperatures and is expected to remain in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear for the next 72 hours or so. This should allow for steady strengthening, and the forecast follows the intensity consensus in calling for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours and a hurricane in about 48 hours. After 72 hours, a combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and westerly shear is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 8.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 8.9N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 9.9N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 10.9N 133.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 12.0N 136.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 15.5N 145.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 17.5N 146.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 10

2015-07-30 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300232 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 The depression's cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with a few small patches of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a Dvorak CI number from TAFB. North-northwesterly shear and dry air continue to affect the cyclone. Although the shear is expected to lessen, even drier air lies ahead of the system. The global models show the depression opening into a trough in a day or so, and the official forecast follows that guidance. The depression could become a remnant low before it dissipates if organized deep convection does not return soon. The initial motion estimate is 265/14. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression should continue to steer the cyclone just south of due west until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. This system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.6N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 16.4N 139.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 16.2N 142.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 9

2015-07-29 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 Deep convection associated with the depression is becoming less organized and now consists of a nearly linear band through the eastern and southeastern part of the circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. North-northwesterly vertical shear of 10-15 kt is expected to diminish during the next 24 hours, but the circulation is moving into a drier air mass and over lower oceanic heat content values. Degeneration into a trough is expected by 36 hours based on the latest global model guidance. Although not explicitly indicated in the forecast, the depression could become a remnant low before dissipation occurs if it can't maintain organized deep convection. The depression appeared to accelerate suddenly earlier today but has leveled out at a motion of 265/14 kt. A low-level ridge to the north should keep the cyclone moving at this motion until dissipation, and the NHC track forecast follows the GFS-ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.6N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.5N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 16.3N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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