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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2015-08-27 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 272037 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 The center has been wobbling during the day, but the mean motion is estimated to be 285/13. In the mean, a west-northwestward track to the south of a subtropical ridge is likely to continue for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn to the right along the southwestern and western periphery of the ridge. There remains considerable spread in the track model guidance at days 3 to 5, partly due to differences in model-predicted intensities at those time frames. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical models with a better depiction of the storm's environment. These data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS. Vertical shear is expected to be fairly strong for the next couple of days and that, along with the interaction with land, should preclude significant strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat, and this could allow for intensification assuming that the cyclone is not too disrupted by the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola. Because of the marginal upper-level wind environment and potential interaction with land over the next few days, there is unusually high uncertainty in the forecast intensity, especially at days 3 to 5. The biggest short-term threat posed by Erika is very heavy rainfall over portions of the Leeward Islands, which should spread over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Friday. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. More than 12 inches of rain has fallen in Dominica, with reports of fatalities in that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.9N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 19.2N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 20.7N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 24.9N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 29.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 11

2015-08-27 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271457 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 Erika is not well organized at this time. Although deep convection increased overnight and early today during the diurnal maximum, with considerable lightning activity, banding features were lacking. The convection is also not well organized on the Guadeloupe radar imagery. Recent high-resolution visible imagery shows the low-level center becoming exposed, again, to the northwest of the main area of thunderstorms. Data from the aircraft do not indicate any strengthening, and the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. The latest aircraft fixes show that the center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previous estimates. With some adjustments to the previous location, the initial motion estimate is kept at 270/14. For the next few days, Erika should move west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, as the tropical cyclone nears the western periphery of the ridge, a turn to the northwest and north-northwest should occur. However there is uncertainty as to how soon and how sharp this turn will take place. The future track of Erika is also dependent on its intensity, with a weaker system likely to move more to the west and a stronger cyclone more to the east. There is substantial spread in the track models at days 3 to 5, partially due to differences in model-predicted intensity. The official track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous one mainly due to the adjustment in the current center position. This is close to the model consensus. As expected, Erika is being disrupted by an unfavorable atmospheric environment, and this disruption is expected to continue for the next couple of days. No significant strengthening is expected until later in the forecast period. In addition, with the reformation of the center to the south of the previous track, the likelihood of interaction with the land mass of Hispaniola has increased. This has implications for Hispaniola, of course, but also for the track and intensity of Erika after that. In short, potential impacts for the Bahamas and beyond are unusually uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.8N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 23.9N 77.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 26.5N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane IGNACIO Forecast Discussion Number 11

2015-08-27 16:45:35| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

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Tropical Storm JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-08-27 16:42:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 Jimena is steadily becoming better organized with deep convection persisting near the center and more pronounced banding developing around the circulation. The initial intensity is 40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. Embedded in an environment of low shear, high moisture, and very warm ocean water, Jimena should have no problems continuing to intensify. In fact, rapid intensification (RI) is a distinct possibility during the next 24 hours. A low-level inner core ring was noted in the 37-GHz channel of a 0946 UTC GPM microwave pass, and the SHIPS RI index is showing a 1 in 3 chance of a 30-kt intensity change during the next 24 hours. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast shows Jimena becoming a hurricane on Friday. After 24 hours, the overall environment should remain favorable for strengthening, and Jimena is forecast to be a major hurricane from day 3 through day 5. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the IVCN intensity consensus and shows a bit more strengthening than the previous forecast through 96 hours. The storm has been moving quickly west-northwestward with a 12-hour motion of 285/15 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge extends from northwestern Mexico to just east of the Hawaiian Islands, and this feature should steer Jimena generally westward during the next 48 hours. A weakness is expected to develop in the ridge by 72 hours, which should turn the cyclone west-northwestward through day 5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward during the first 48 hours, and the updated NHC track forecast follows suit but still lies a little north of the model consensus. The updated forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one after 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 12.7N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.0N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 13.1N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 13.1N 126.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 15.5N 134.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 17.0N 137.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane IGNACIO Forecast Discussion Number 10

2015-08-27 11:00:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

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