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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-08-06 10:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 Dry mid- to upper-level air from the south has wrapped into the circulation and now surrounds the inner core, having completely cut off and weakened the convective band in the northern semicircle. However, a small concentration of deep convection has persisted near and to the west of the well-defined low-level center as noted in recent passive microwave satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a partial ASCAT-B overpass around 0552 UTC indicated 27-kt surface winds in the convection just west of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory. The motion continues to be 270/10 kt. The depression is forecast to maintain a general westward motion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by 72 hours as the cyclone reaches the southwestern periphery of the deep-layer subtropical ridge located to its north. Most of the 0000 UTC global models, especially the GFS and ECMWF, have backed off somewhat on developing a large break in the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands by days 4 and 5. This has resulted in a significant westward and southward shift of the guidance envelope. The official forecast track follows suit and has been shifted to the left of the previous advisory track after 72 hours, but not nearly as far left as the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. I would prefer to see a couple of more model runs before making such a large shift in the forecast track, in case this is a diurnal fluctuation for only one cycle. The cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of at least 28C for the next 72 hours, and in a low-shear environment of 5-10 kt for the next 96 hours. These favorable factors would normally result in significant strengthening. Although proximity to the aforementioned dry air will likely inhibit and disrupt the normal intensification process, the cyclone is still forecast to achieve hurricane status by day 4. Westerly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt is expected to impinge on the system by day 5, resulting in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 12.5N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 12.6N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 12.6N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 12.9N 136.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 13.5N 138.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 14.7N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 16.5N 145.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 18.3N 147.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2015-08-06 04:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060232 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has organized into a couple of bands over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Visible satellite data also indicates that the circulation has become better defined and advisories are being initiated on the tenth tropical depression of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue heading westward to the south of a narrow mid- to upper-level ridge. After 72 hours, a deepening mid-level trough well to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to produce a weakness in the ridge between 140W and 150W longitude. This should result in the cyclone turning west-northwestward, then northwestward late in the forecast period. The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next several days. The primary inhibiting factor appears to be some mid-level dry air to the north of the system. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. After 72 hours, slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear are expected to induce weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.5N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 12.5N 131.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 12.5N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 12.6N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 12.9N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.2N 140.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 15.8N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.8N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Discussion Draft of Campus Institutional Zoning Update Project

2015-08-05 23:36:26| PortlandOnline

Comments due by September 14, 2015

Tags: project discussion update campus

 

Discussion Draft of Campus Institutional Zoning Update Project

2015-08-05 23:34:22| PortlandOnline

Comments due by September 14, 2015 PDF Document, 5,586kbCategory: Documents

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Obama Policy Could Force Robust Climate Discussion From 2016 Candidates

2015-08-03 03:10:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed

New York Times: The issue of climate change played almost no role in the 2012 presidential campaign. President Obama barely mentioned the topic, nor did the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney. It was not raised in a single presidential debate. But as Mr. Obama prepares to leave office, his own aggressive actions on climate change have thrust the issue into the 2016 campaign. Strategists now say that this battle for the White House could feature more substantive debate over global warming policy than any previous presidential...

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