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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 8

2015-07-29 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 291437 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015 A recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the depression still has a well-defined circulation and center, but the deep convection has become less organized since yesterday. The intensity remains at 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Vertical shear is out of the north-northwest at 10-15 kt, which is lower than yesterday, but the depression has been moving into an increasingly drier air mass. Therefore, the system is forecast to weaken and degenerate into a trough by 48 hours, following the evolution depicted in the global models. The initial motion is 270/11 kt, with the depression being steered westward by the low-level ridge to its north. A westward motion with some acceleration should occur during the next 36 hours before the depression dissipates, and the updated NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly southward to follow the GFS-ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 17.0N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 16.8N 138.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 16.6N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 6

2015-07-29 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290239 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 The depression's cloud pattern is becoming less organized. The low-level center continues to be exposed, and the overall extent of the cyclone's deep convection has diminished since yesterday. What few puffs of convection remain are shapeless and occurring in sporadic bursts. Satellite classifications are T1.5 and T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, suggesting that 30 kt is still a reasonable intensity estimate. A stiff northwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt affecting the depression is supposed to decrease considerably during the next couple of days. However, cooler waters and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic factors such as even less available atmospheric moisture suggest that weakening is likely. In fact, according to the global models, it would be optimistic for depression to survive another 48 hours. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the unanimous model guidance calling for dissipation in 2 days or less. The initial motion estimate is 280/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of the depression should direct it westward during the next day or so. Once the weak system becomes even shallower, it is expected to trek westward or even west- southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow until dissipation. The official forecast is almost identical to the previous one as well as to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.0N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.1N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2015-07-28 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 The low-level center of the depression is exposed to the northwest of a small burst of deep convection, and arc clouds are emanating outward over the northern semicircle due to dry air in the circulation. The various Dvorak estimates were steady or decreased from this morning, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center is exposed due to continued 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly shear, which is expected to begin diminishing in about 12 hours. At the same time, however, the depression will be ingesting increasingly drier air and moving over much lower oceanic heat content values. Therefore, strengthening is no longer indicated in the official forecast, following the trends noted in the intensity and global models. The global models open the system up into a trough by day 3, and dissipation is therefore expected by that time. The depression has turned westward, or 280/12 kt, steered by the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. Due to its shallow nature, the depression should continue to move quickly westward until it dissipates. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the future track, and the official forecast continues to closely follow the consensus of those two models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 16.6N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-07-28 16:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281433 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 The depression continues to lack banding features, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of a recent flare-up of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates are unchanged from six hours ago, while final-T numbers from the UW-CIMSS ADT have been decreasing. The initial winds are therefore kept at 30 kt. The SHIPS diagnostics indicate that 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly shear is currently affecting the depression. The shear is expected to decrease gradually after 12-24 hours, but then the cyclone will also be moving into a drier air mass. The intensity and global models show no or minimal strengthening, but the official forecast still allows for the system to become a tropical storm sometime during the next 24 hours. Dissipation could occur earlier than shown below, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the system becoming an open trough by 72 hours. The subtropical ridge continues to steer the depression west- northwestward at about 11 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward later today and maintain that trajectory until it dissipates in three or four days. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which lies very close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 16.4N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 16.7N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 17.0N 133.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 17.2N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 144.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-07-28 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015 There has not been much change with the depression during the last several hours. Although an area of deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the center, the cloud pattern lacks banding features. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB. The depression is currently experiencing about 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear, which is the reason why most of the thunderstorms are located to the south of the center. This continued shear, in combination with a stable air mass to the north of the cyclone should allow for only slight strengthening, if any, during the next day or two. After that time, weakening is expected when the system moves into an even more stable air mass and over slightly cooler water. None of the intensity models show significant strengthening, and the NHC forecast lies near the ICON consensus model. Most of the global models show the depression opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days, and the NHC forecast follows that theme by showing dissipation at 96 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the system should cause the cyclone to turn westward by tonight, and that general motion is forecast to continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 16.2N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 16.6N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.9N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 17.2N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 17.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 17.3N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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