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Tropical Storm DANNY Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-08-24 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240239 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 Danny remains a sheared tropical cyclone. The low-level center is exposed well to the southwest of a small of area of deep convection that has formed within the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft that investigated Danny this evening measured tropical-storm-force winds on the SFMR over a small area close to the convection. Based on these data, Danny remains a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory. The environment ahead of Danny is expected to remain unfavorable. Moderate southwesterly shear and dry mid-tropospheric air should cause weakening, and Danny is forecast to become a tropical depression on Monday, and degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate in a couple of days. The tropical cyclone is moving westward or 270/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as Danny is expected to move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. Since the chance of tropical-storm-force winds has decreased in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the tropical storm watch for those areas has been discontinued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.6N 59.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 61.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.3N 64.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.8N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 17.5N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm DANNY Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-08-23 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232041 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 Danny has become decidedly less organized since earlier today. The low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection, and that deep convection has become rather ragged-looking. The current intensity estimate is set to 35 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. This is also consistent with recent data buoy observations. Danny should remain in an environment of moderately strong shear and dry mid-tropospheric air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors should cause weakening to a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, and dissipation thereafter. If the global models are correct, however, Danny could dissipate sooner than shown here. Danny continues to move a little south of the previously estimated track, and the initial motion estimate is 260/14. This is likely due to the fact that it is becoming a shallow circulation. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Danny should provide a continued westward or a little north of westward motion for the next 72 hours or so. The track models have shifted even a little farther to the south on this cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. This is close to the dynamical model consensus. Although tropical storm watches or warnings are not in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy, the government of France has issued a warning for heavy rain and strong winds for those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.6N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.6N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 17.2N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 18.6N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Discussion continues on proposed Mesick annexation
2015-08-13 13:41:34| Waste Management - Topix.net
Mesick board members plan to hold discussions on a new proposal presented by a consulting group on a proposed annexation and multi-million dollar water project. "We heard that residents were concerned about paying the cost of the hook-up from the water mains to the houses," said Jim Cuthbertson, a consultant with Antea Group.
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Hurricane HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-08-08 04:58:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080258 TCDEP5 HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 The hurricane continues to intensify at a rapid pace. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave overpass revealed that Hilda's inner core was extremely compact. In addition, visible and infrared geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system's eye has become better defined, and the areal extent of cold cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye has increased over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate is raised to 90 kt, in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. There is strong upper-level outflow associated with the cyclone, particularly over the western semicircle of the circulation. Hilda's intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 to 24 hours, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak. In about 48 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin encountering stronger shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near the Hawaiian Islands. Global models predict that the shear will increase greatly beyond 72 hours. Therefore a weakening trend is forecast to commence in 48 hours, with rapid weakening likely in the latter part of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west, or 280/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much since the last advisory. Hilda's track should gradually bend toward the west-northwest and northwest over the next 96 hours or so, as the cyclone moves to the south of a mid-level ridge and approaches a cyclonic circulation just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Near the end of the forecast period, the rapidly weakening system should become a more shallow circulation, and turn more toward the west within the low- to mid-tropospheric flow. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Since Hilda will be moving into the central Pacific basin very soon, future information on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-08-07 22:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072052 TCDEP5 HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 Hilda has undergone rapid intensification during the past several hours, with a small eye forming in the middle of the central dense overcast. The initial intensity, however, is somewhat uncertain due to a large spread in the satellite estimates. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt and 65 kt, while the latest AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA are 75 kt and 60 kt. In addition, there is a CIMSS Satellite consensus estimate of about 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt. The shear observed this morning seems to have diminished, as the outflow is increasing in the eastern semicircle. The initial motion is slightly faster at 275/13. For the next 48 hours or so, Hilda should be steered westward to west-northwestward by the deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. After that time, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Hilda to turn generally northwestward. The track guidance again generally agrees on this scenario, and while the GFDL and GFDN models remain right outliers there is better overall agreement on how sharply Hilda will turn than for the previous forecast. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the previous track based mostly on the current position and motion, and it lies near the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope. It is unclear how long the current rapid intensification will last. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows about a 30 percent chance of a 25 kt increase in strength during the next 24 hours. However, the cloud pattern of the hurricane still has a ragged appearance, and due to the small size of the system any unfavorable aspect of the environment could stop intensification. The new forecast compromises between these extremes and calls for continued strengthening at a slower rate through 36 hours. After 48-72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this combination should cause significant weakening. The new intensity forecast remains in best overall agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.7N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.0N 139.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 13.7N 142.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 14.4N 144.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 15.2N 145.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 19.0N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 151.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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