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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-08-02 22:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022050 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 Bertha has maintained some organized convection over the eastern semicircle during the past several hours. However, the system barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone, as a combination of NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface data cannot definitively close off the circulation. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on a combination of surface observations and data from the San Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar. It should be noted that Bertha continues to suffer from dry air entrainment and northwesterly vertical shear, and advisories could be discontinued tonight or Sunday if the system becomes any less organized. The initial motion is now 300/19. Bertha is approaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn northwestward during the next several hours. A turn toward the north should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States. After that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is again generally similar to the previous track. There are now three possible scenarios for the intensity of Bertha. The scenario for the official forecast is that Bertha survives its current lack of structure, land interaction, and dry air entrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in about 36 hours. At that point, it would likely intensify until the onset of extratropical transition in 96-120 hours. Using this scenario, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in about 96 hours. The second scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropical wave as it passes over Hispaniola, with possible regeneration later when the system reaches the more favorable environment. A new third possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.4N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.0N 70.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 22.5N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 25.1N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 28.0N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 34.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 38.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-02 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022035 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 Despite continued north-northeasterly shear, Iselle has strengthened to category 2 strength during the past few hours. The deep convection remains a little asymmetric, favoring the eastern semicircle, but Dvorak estimates have still risen to T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. These data, combined with an earlier AMSU estimate of 78 kt, support raising the initial intensity to 85 kt. The vertical shear, such as it is, is still expected to diminish during the next 12-24 hours. At the same time, Iselle will be moving over decreasing oceanic heat content values, and the stronger winds will likely lead to increased upwelling of colder water. The official forecast allows for a little more intensification in the short term, but after 24 hours the less favorable thermodynamic environment should induce gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little bit higher than the previous one only during the first 3 days to account for the higher initial intensity. Beyond day 3, the GFDL and HWRF keep Iselle near the threshold of hurricane intensity while the statistical models show a more marked decrease in winds. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the LGEM and FSU Superensemble on days 4 and 5. Iselle's initial motion is 280/8 kt. The hurricane is expected to maintain a general westward motion but could slow down a bit in 48-72 hours when the ridge to the north of Iselle weakens. By days 4 and 5, a mid-level high northeast of Hawaii is anticipated to strengthen and slide eastward, which should impart a faster westward motion at the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 72 hours, but most of the models, particularly the ECMWF and GFDL, have shifted northward on this cycle. The updated NHC track forecast is also nudged northward on days 4 and 5 and lies close to the FSU Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.1N 130.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 15.7N 133.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.9N 135.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 17.5N 150.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Shenandoah Telecommunications Co/Va/ - 10-Q - Management's Discussion ...
2014-08-02 19:25:02| IT Services - Topix.net
This management's discussion and analysis includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
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Shenandoah Telecommunications Co/Va/ - 10-Q - Management's Discussion ...
2014-08-02 17:46:11| Telecom - Topix.net
This management's discussion and analysis includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-08-02 16:55:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021454 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 Bertha remains a disorganized tropical cyclone this morning, as even with the aid of Doppler radar data it is difficult to find a closed circulation. The low-level center is near the western edge of the main convective mass, which indicates the system is still affected by vertical wind shear. However, the convection has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours, and the outflow is improving over the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a combination of continuity and Doppler radar data. The initial motion is 290/19. Bertha is approaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn northwest during the next 6-12 hours. A turn toward the north should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States. After that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is generally similar to the previous track. There has been a small westward shift during the first 12-24 hours, with the center now forecast to make landfall over the eastern Dominican Republic. Little change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours or so as Bertha deals with lingering shear, dry air entrainment, and passage over the mountains of Hispaniola. After that, the cyclone is expected to move into a more favorable environment that could allow strengthening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, calling for Bertha to become a hurricane for a short time after recurvature. It is possible that passage over the Dominican Republic could cause Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave. Should that happen, there would be a chance for regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable environment to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.8N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1200Z 21.2N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 04/0000Z 23.6N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 26.4N 74.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 32.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 42.0N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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