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Remnants of TWO Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-07-23 16:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231455 TCDAT2 REMNANTS OF TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 Visible satellite imagery indicate that the depression has weakened overnight, with only a weak swirl remaining with no deep convection. Low-level cloud motions show no evidence of a closed surface circlation so this is the last advisory on this system issued by NHC. The remnants of the depression are expected to move through the Lesser Antilles this evening with some areas of gusty winds and showers. Further information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.0N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TWO 12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-23 10:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230834 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates that the convection is not particularly well organized. An AMSR2 image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing definition. The depression is currently passing just south of NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb. Based on a TAFB Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and dry air. These conditions should cause the depression to weaken during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours. All of the dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt. The depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 59.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.4N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-07-23 04:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230236 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection than it was earlier today. Satellite images indicate that the convective pattern consists of a small circular area of thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding features surrounding it. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in shear. These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry air mass should prevent significant strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48 h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt. An even faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.4N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 53.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.1N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 15.9N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-07-22 22:34:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222034 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The satellite presentation of the depression has become less impressive this afternoon. The coverage and structure of the cold cloud tops has decreased, and visible imagery suggests that the low-level center is located on the east side of the convective canopy. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the dry air surrounding the cyclone already appears to be taking a toll on the system. The dry air and an increase in shear should result in gradual weakening and the cyclone opening up into a trough in a couple of days near the Lesser Antilles, although a 48-hour remnant low point is provided for continuity. It is also possible that the system could dissipate even sooner. The initial motion estimate is 280/16, and a quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression is steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one and is close to the latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.2N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-07-22 16:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221436 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The depression continues to produce deep convection in a band to the west and southwest of the center and the initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, as the cyclone will be moving through an environment of dry air and increasing shear that will not favor strengthening. The global models and the HWRF show the vortex weakening and opening up into a trough near the Lesser Antilles by 48 hours or shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast includes a 48-h point as a remnant low, but it would not be surprising if the system had already dissipated by that time. The initial motion estimate is 280/15, as the depression continues to be steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. A quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation. The dynamical track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC track is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.6N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 14.8N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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