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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 16

2014-08-07 22:45:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072045 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Julio has changed little in organization during the past several hours. The eye has become a little better defined in visible imagery. However, the temperature and symmetry of the eyewall cloud tops are about the same as they were 6 hours ago. Satellite intensity estimates remain 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB. In addition, UW-CIMSS ADT/SATCON estimates are near 100 kt, and there was a recent AMSU intensity estimate of 98 kt. The initial intensity remains at a possibly conservative 90 kt. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is now 280/15. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward path. During the first 72 hours, the track guidance remains tightly clustered near the new forecast track with the notable exception of the outlier GFDL model, which still forecasts a track near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should turn more westward. However, there is still some spread in the guidance, with the UKMET forecasting a continued west-northwestward motion and the ECMWF forecasting a turn toward the west-southwest. The multi-model consensus lies near the previous forecast track, so the new track is just an update of the previous advisory. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission for Julio. The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. The intensity guidance is in excellent agreement in showing a gradual weakening during that time, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The agreement breaks down after 72 hours as Julio starts moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During that period, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Julio to be a moderate strength tropical storm, while the GFDL/HWRF models forecast it to be a hurricane. In addition, the large-scale models have some disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part of the forecast is still a compromise between the two model camps, and the new forecast lies close to the intensity consensus. It is possible that Julio could get a little stronger than forecast during the next 6-12 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.1N 137.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.5N 140.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.1N 143.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 18.8N 146.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 148.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 22.0N 154.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 24.0N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 163.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 15

2014-08-07 16:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071438 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Despite moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Julio is continuing to strengthen. The eye has become better defined during the past few hours, and the cloud top temperatures in the eyewall have cooled. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT are near 100 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt based on a blend of these data. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere. Julio has turned a little to the left and the initial motion is now 280/16. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory. During the first 72 hours, the track guidance is tightly clustered near the new forecast track with the notable exception of the GFDL model, which forecasts a track near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should continue a west-northwesterly to westward motion. This has reduced, but not eliminated, the spread in the track guidance at 96 and 120 hours. The new track forecast is just south of the previous forecast through 72 hours, then is adjusted farther south from the previous track at the later forecast times. The new forecast lies near or just to the north of the multi-model consensus and the center of the guidance envelope. The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. All of the intensity guidance forecasts a gradual weakening during that time, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain after 72 hours as Julio starts moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During this period, the statistical guidance is forecasting a weaker storm than the dynamical guidance, and the the large-scale models have some disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part of the forecast is nudged upward as a compromise between the two model camps. Overall, the new forecast lies close to the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.9N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.3N 138.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 23.5N 158.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 24.5N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 14

2014-08-07 10:43:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070843 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Julio's signature in infrared satellite imagery has improved since the last advisory. The hurricane is compact and symmetric, and the eye has cleared out during the past few hours. Satellite intensity estimates have all increased and are now T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and T5.2/95 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A blend of these data supports increasing the winds to 85 kt on this advisory. The forward speed has increased a bit to 290/15 kt. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory. Global model fields are now indicating that a break in the ridge currently to the north of Hawaii may fill in just enough over the next few days to keep Julio from turning northwestward at the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered for the first 48 hours. After that time, the ECMWF model is a noticeable outlier compared to the rest of the models, showing Julio taking a more northern route as it is steered around a more strongly depicted mid-level high northeast of Hawaii. The updated NHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies just to the northeast of the multi-model consensus TVCE after 72 hours. Julio is essentially straddling the 26C sea surface temperature isotherm and is expected to move over water between 25-26C during the next 3 days or so. Even though water temperatures are marginal for strengthening, Julio has a few other factors going for it. Vertical shear is expected to remain light for another 2 days, and Julio appears to be embedded within a much larger moisture envelope than Iselle has had to work with. In addition, Julio's fast motion may help to mitigate the negative influence of upper-ocean mixing of cooler waters. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast allows for the possibility of further strengthening during the next 12 hours or so and keeps Julio at hurricane strength for the next 2-3 days. Only gradual weakening is anticipated at the end of the forecast period since Julio will be moving over increasingly warmer waters to the north and west of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.8N 134.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.2N 137.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.7N 140.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 143.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 19.0N 146.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 21.0N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 23.5N 156.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 25.0N 161.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Charles & Colvard LTD - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis...

2014-08-07 07:14:31| Jewelry - Topix.net

This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Exchange Act.

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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 13

2014-08-07 04:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070252 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 Julio has strengthened during the last several hours. The eye of the hurricane, which is quite distinct in microwave images, has recently become apparent in infrared satellite images. In addition, the convective pattern is more symmetric about the center than it was earlier today. The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. The hurricane is currently over sea surface temperatures of about 27 C, and in an atmosphere of low shear and relatively high moisture. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible during the overnight hours. After that time, however, Julio is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm and should remain over 25-26 C water for the next few days. These cool waters combined with a drier air mass should cause the system to slowly weaken. The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 290/14. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Julio is expected to keep the system moving westward to west-northwestward for the next few days. Beyond that time, the models are in fairly good agreement in showing a break in the ridge developing due to a large trough moving eastward over the north Pacific. This change in the steering pattern should cause Julio to turn more toward the northwest in 4 to 5 days. The track guidance has changed little this cycle, and the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Based on the latest forecast, Julio will be near or to the north of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 133.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 17.9N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 20.3N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 22.8N 155.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.5N 160.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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