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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-04 10:54:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040853 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Iselle continues to show an annular hurricane structure with no outer banding around a symmetric inner core. Satellite classifications are about the same as a few hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 110 kt. Little change in intensity is likely today while a low-shear environment remains near the hurricane. Iselle is likely to experience some shear on Tuesday, which should start a more consistent weakening. As the cyclone moves deeper into the central Pacific basin, a combination of dry air aloft, westerly shear and marginal SSTs should continue the weakening process. The latest NHC forecast is somewhat above the model consensus early on due to the annular structure, but ends up below the consensus at long range due to the unfavorable environment described above. Iselle is moving westward at roughly 8 kt. This general motion should continue for a day or so with some acceleration after that time due to a restrengthening of a ridge over the central Pacific. Iselle should move more to the west-northwest in a few days due to the cyclone moving around the southwestern portion of the ridge. Model guidance has not changed much during the past 6 hours, and the latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous forecast and the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 16.0N 135.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.1N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 16.1N 138.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 16.3N 140.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 16.9N 142.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.5N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 20.6N 155.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 22.7N 160.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-04 10:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040848 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Satellite images indicate that, although that the cyclone has a large area of associated deep convection, it is somewhat lopsided with most of the thunderstorms activity west of the center. However, Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are both at 35 kt, and two ASCAT passes from a couple of hours ago indicate maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed is, therefore, set to 40 kt in agreement with the ASCAT data. Only a gradual intensification of Julio is shown over the next 36 hours due to a continuation of moderate northeasterly shear that is currently affecting the cyclone. While there is some suggestion that this shear could abate after this time, there is enough uncertainty to only show steady strengthening. At long range, the cyclone will be close to the typical sharp SST gradient over the eastern Pacific, as well as possibly a cold wake from Iselle, so no intensity change is indicated at that time. The latest NHC forecast is only slightly higher than the previous one, between the latest model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. ASCAT data show that Julio is moving westward at about 11 kt. A strong ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the storm westward at a slightly faster forward speed for the next several days. Julio should gradually gain some latitude by the end of the forecast period due to the orientation of the ridge, and model guidance has shifted northward at long range on this cycle. The NHC track forecast is also adjusted northward, but is still a bit south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.4N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 13.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 13.6N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 14.4N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 15.2N 139.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-04 08:00:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040559 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 The satellite presentation of Iselle has become much better organized over the past few hours with a warm, well-defined eye and strong convection in the eyewall. A special 0500 UTC Dvorak classification from TAFB had a Data-T value of 6.0, or 115 kt, with constraints suggesting a slightly lower final wind speed. CIMSS ADT values have been running near 110 kt for the past six hours, and this will be used as the initial intensity. With Iselle's current annular structure, little change in intensity is foreseen in the near-term. A slow weakening could begin by late Monday due to the hurricane encountering a somewhat less favorable thermodynamic environment. The official NHC wind speed prediction has been raised significantly from the previous one through 36 hours due to the stronger initial intensity. No changes have been made to the intensity forecast beyond 72 hours at this time. No changes have been made to the previous forecast track in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0600Z 16.0N 135.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Axalta Participates In Panel Discussion On Workforce Innovation & Opportunity Act (WIOA)
2014-08-04 07:00:00| Coatings World Breaking News
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-04 04:48:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040248 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 Iselle's satellite appearance has essentially been steady state since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to exhibit many of the characteristics of an annular hurricane, with a nearly axisymmetric convective structure and a curious lack of convective features outside the well-defined cental dense overcast. A circular but cloud-filled 20-25 n mi wide eye is also evident in last-light visible imagery. The initial intensity is reduced only slightly to 95 kt in accordance with the latest CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is a steady 280/10, with perhaps more of a due-west wobble during the last couple of hours. A mid-latitude trough extending southwestward along 130w is forecast to weaken the subtropical ridge north of Iselle during the next 24 hours. The effect of the weakened ridge should be a decrease in the cyclone's forward motion for a brief period during the next day or two as it approaches 140w. By day 3, the cyclone should find itself south of a newly established central Pacific ridge, which should steer Iselle west-northwestward at a considerably faster forward speed by days 4-5. The track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope, very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. Even though Iselle is moving over marginally warm sea surface temperatures, its current annular structure in a very light-shear environment suggests that the cyclone might retain a higher intensity than the guidance might suggest if the large-scale environmental conditions do not vary much at least during the next day or possibly two. After that, significantly less favorable thermodynamic factors, such as increasingly drier and more stable air and water temperatures just below 26C, should result in weakening while Iselle nears the Hawaiian Islands. An accelerated weakening may take place as Iselle makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian chain when environmental conditions become even more hostile. The intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 15.9N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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